New research shows that people enjoying beach activities along the U.S. East Coast could face much higher risks of bacterial infections by the end of this century as climate change warms ocean waters. The study, published in GeoHealth, used climate models to estimate how infections from heat-loving marine bacteria could increase by 2100.

The bacteria of concern belong to the Vibrio family—Vibrio vulnificus and Vibrio parahaemolyticus—naturally found in seawater that can cause illnesses if people accidentally swallow water or come into contact with contaminated seawater while swimming or playing at the beach. These bacteria thrive in warmer conditions, meaning that as sea surface temperatures rise due to climate change, they are likely to grow faster and become more abundant.

Using a method called quantitative microbial risk assessment, scientists estimated the likelihood of infection from recreational water exposure under future climate scenarios spanning from 2020 to the year 2100. Even with moderate warming, risks of getting a Vibrio-related infection are projected to rise significantly by the end of the century. Under more extreme warming scenarios, those risks could be up to 1,000 times higher than today’s levels. The study also found that northern parts of the East Coast—where waters are currently cooler—could see a greater increase in infection risk compared with southern beaches.

These findings highlight an important public health concern as ocean temperatures keep rising. Beachgoers, especially those with open cuts or weakened immune systems, may face a greater chance of exposure to harmful bacteria in coming decades. Researchers stress that understanding these risks can help policymakers and communities plan adaptive strategies to protect public health as the climate continues to change.

Citation:
Huang, Y.-H., & Jiang, S. (2026). Quantifying Vibrio infection risks from beach recreation along U.S. Eastern Seaboard in year 2100. GeoHealth, 10, e2025GH001536. https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GH001536